Tuesday, July 26, 2011

The Actual Choice - Cutting Now or Crashing Later

General - Deficit spending has gone unaddressed for close to forever but definitely for the past 45+ years as if there was no end in sight. Well here we are at the bitter end and we can either whine about what was done or correct the errors, work back the debt in a disciplined way and leave the balance sheet in far better shape than when we inherited it and leave the stewardship issues for the generations that follow.

This will require a determination and vigilance that is usually reserved for states of war. Everyone's ox will get gored and the gravy trains must be derailed and the track bed shredded if it's going to take.

I believe that the free market system will kick in and unforeseen forces will come into play that will offset some of the perceived "pain" that will be required to get us healthy and fit again.

Military (-40%) We have to give up trying to fix the world on the US taxpayer's dime. NATO was one thing following a WWII crushed Europe. The same goes for SEATO and the rest. If we are going to provide security services then either we get paid market rates for it from countries than can well afford it or they can step up and develop their own security forces. We have been played like an addled uncle.

Medicaid (-40%) There has always been a thorn in my side when working people can't afford medical care but those who need/choose to learn how to work the system can get a much higher level of care on the taxpayer's dime. It encourages the 20th century version of slavery.

The desire to have and provide essential medical care to one's family should be part of one's compensation package and be an earned benefit - not a right. Reliance on Mediaid should be limited to episodic care that is either less than or equal to basic compensation based coverage, not superior to it.

I am aware that there are those who believe that they are incapable of working in a traditional 40 hour/5 day structure and they may be correct to a point. I suggest that this is a learned mindset aided by enablers who profit from keeping their client roster popuilated and politicians that need a class dependent on them. Unlike Massa's on the plantation, any robust entrepeanuer will recognize the opportunity here when a significant number of these people can provide minimally time sensitive production from a home based computer.

Open up Medical Insurance Co-ops so small business' can incorporate this as part of a predictable compensation expense.

Medicare (-40%) Means Test 101, Part A. Then roll this back until it's able to be done away with. Medical savings accounts are the wave of the new future that makes personal, employer and corporate responsibility the key to continued coverage. I am not talking about , "a gun to your head" government mandate but a social mandate of what is right, reasonable and acceptable business practice.

Social Security (+/-) Quick test question here. Is Social Security a funded by withholding from both the employer and the employee retirement account or is it a taxpayer funded entitlement? We were sold on the supposition the former state of affairs and labored a lifetime under the assumption that the money taken from our employers and us was being held in an inviolate trust account. That money was then "invested" in government securities so it is now part of the national debt. It's time to get honest and honor the 14th amendment's 4th clause and stop pretending SS is an expenditure from tax revenues. It's a matter of paying back what was already borrowed and spent from our trust fund.

Other (-50%) Run the government on the cheap - just like business has to.

Income Taxes (+8%) I favor the doing away of the tax structure as it stands. All deductions, subsidies, and the rest do not serves the national interest. A flat consumption tax added at each stage of transfer of materials and developed products all the way to the end consumer should take it's place. This should also be applied to imported goods and services with the tax based on the cost were the items originated and completed here.

This could be managed in such a way that it would do away with huge swaths of bureaucracy there to filter special case treatments engendering further cost effective savings.

Payroll Taxes (+8%)

Corp Taxes (+8%)
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Deficit neutral in 2012, minimum - $0.5 T in 2014 and up to -$0.75 T years following.

Debt to GDP from 70% in 2012 declining to ~ 22% in 2021

Revenue exceeds spending from 2013 out.
2013 $0.3 T
2014 $0.5 T
2015 $0.6 T
2016 $0.6 T
2017 $0.6 T
2018 $0.7 T
2019 $0.6 T
2020 $0.8 T
2021 $0.7 T

This comes to $5.4 T debt reduction over 9 years. Extended out and with further cuts in the future as social programs are scaled back to zero can put us in a debt neutral position in 25 to 30 years.

$14,653,833,000,000 and counting up at $2.88 BILLION a day is that huge a debt.

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